Application of HP-LSTM Models for Groundwater Level Prediction in Karst Regions: A Case Study in Qingzhen City

Groundwater serves as an indispensable global resource, essential for agriculture, industry, and the urban water supply. Predicting the groundwater level in karst regions presents notable challenges due to the intricate geological structures and fluctuating climatic conditions. This study examines Qingzhen City, China, introducing an innovative hybrid model, the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter–Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network (HP-LSTM), which integrates the HP filter with the LSTM network to enhance the precision of groundwater level forecasting. By attenuating short-term noise, the HP-LSTM model improves the long-term trend prediction accuracy. Findings reveal that the HP-LSTM model significantly outperformed the conventional LSTM, attaining R2 values of 0.99, 0.96, and 0.98 on the training, validation, and test datasets, respectively, in contrast to LSTM values of 0.92, 0.76, and 0.95. The HP-LSTM model achieved an RMSE of 0.0276 and a MAPE of 2.92% on the test set, significantly outperforming the LSTM model (RMSE: 0.1149; MAPE: 9.14%) in capturing long-term patterns and reducing short-term fluctuations. While the LSTM model is effective at modeling short-term dynamics, it is more prone to noise, resulting in greater prediction errors. Overall, the HP-LSTM model demonstrates superior robustness for long-term groundwater level prediction, whereas the LSTM model may be better suited for scenarios requiring rapid adaptation to short-term variations. Selecting an appropriate model tailored to specific predictive needs can thus optimize groundwater management strategies.