Lukashenka win means little will change in Belarus

Significance The leadership's ability to hold presidential elections without fear of repeating the major public unrest that followed the 2010 and 2020 elections highlights the continuing durability of the Belarusian political system. The authorities suppressed pockets of dissent while maintaining and exploiting apathy among the broader electorate. Impacts Belarus is highly unlikely to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Minsk will seek to forge closer ties with China, principally to promote greater trade and investment links. The opposition in exile will struggle to challenge Lukashenka's leadership meaningfully. Lukashenka will push for Russia to deploy Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles on Belarusian territory.