Comparison of screening outcomes associated with advanced precancerous lesion versus colorectal cancer sensitivity for a blood-based test: A simulation study.

89 Background: With estimates of over 150,000 incident and 50,000 fatal colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in 2024, efforts are ongoing to improve the national screening performance and engagement in the US. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) have established criteria for covering new blood-based CRC screening tests if minimum CRC sensitivity and specificity thresholds are met. However, the current blood-based tests are challenged by their relative inability to detect advanced precancerous lesions (APLs). At present, the importance of APL versus CRC sensitivity on screening outcomes remains undetermined. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a simulation study to compare the screening effectiveness and outcomes of a hypothetical blood-based test across a range of sensitivities for CRC and APL detection. Methods: Outcomes were simulated using the CRC-AIM microsimulation model, which has been previously calibrated and validated. Predicted outcomes were calculated for average-risk individuals screened triennially with a blood-based test between ages 45-75 years, assuming perfect adherence. Base-case screening sensitivity and specificity inputs were based on CMS minimum thresholds (74% CRC sensitivity, 90% specificity) with assumed 10% APL sensitivity. Additional scenarios considered an increase in either APL or CRC sensitivity. Outcomes of interest included life years-gained (LYG), CRC incidence, and mortality reductions. Results: Compared to the CMS minimum performance (Table), increasing APL sensitivity by 1% (from 10% to 11%) resulted in a similar increase in LYG as compared to increasing CRC sensitivity by 11% (from 74% to 85%). Additionally, increasing APL sensitivity by 1% resulted in greater reductions in CRC cases and deaths (3% decrease) as compared to increasing CRC sensitivity by 11% (0% and 1% reductions, respectively). Conclusions: Data from this study show that increased APL sensitivity is a key determinant of screening-related outcomes, such as LYG, derived from a blood-based strategy, and that similar results would require much larger increases in CRC sensitivity. With the current CMS minimum performance threshold, blood-based tests that are designed to have high APL sensitivity can outperform tests with higher CRC sensitivity and little to no APL sensitivity. Comparison of CRC screening health outcomes with CMS proposed minimum threshold blood-test versus hypothetical tests with either increased APL and CRC sensitivity. APL Sensitivity CRC Sensitivity CRC Specificity Follow-up Colonoscopies CRC Cases (% reduction) CRC Deaths (% reduction) Life-Years Gained (LYG) (% increase) 10% 74% 90% 809 50 (ref) 18 (ref) 220 (ref) 11% 74% 90% 813 48 (-3%) 17 (-3%) 226 (3%) 10% 85% 90% 809 50 (0%) 18 (-1%) 227 (3%) APL: Advanced precancerous lesions; CRC: Colorectal cancer.