Investigation of Spatio-Temporal Simulation of Mining Subsidence and Its Determinants Utilizing the RF-CA Model

It is important to carry out timely scientific assessments of surface subsidence in coal resource cities for ecological environmental protection. Traditional subsidence simulation methods cannot quantitatively describe the driving factors that contribute to or ignore the dynamic connections of subsidence across time and space. Thus, a novel spatio-temporal subsidence simulation model is proposed that couples random forest (RF) and cellular automaton (CA) models, which are used to quantify the contributions of driving factors and simulate the spatio-temporal dynamic changes in subsidence. The RF algorithm is first utilized to clarify the contributions of the driving factors to subsidence and to formulate transformation rules for simulation. Then, a spatio-temporal simulation of subsidence is accomplished by combining it with the CA model. Finally, the method is validated based on the Yongcheng coalfield. The results show that the depth–thickness ratio (0.242), distance to the working face (0.159), distance to buildings (0.150), and lithology (0.147) play main roles in the development of subsidence. Meanwhile, the model can effectively simulate the spatio-temporal changes in mining subsidence. The simulation results were evaluated using 2021 subsidence data as the basis data; the simulation’s overall accuracy (OA) was 0.83, and the Kappa coefficient (KC) was 0.71. This method can obtain a more realistic representation of the spatio-temporal distribution of subsidence while considering the driving factors, which provides technological support for land-use planning and ecological and environmental protection in coal resource cities.