Restoration of the Persian Leopard in the Russian Caucasus: Suitability Modeling of Prey Base and Competitors, Habitat Fragmentation Assessment

The north periphery of the Persian leopard range is situated in the Russian Caucasus, where leopards were exterminated by humans in the 1950s. Currently, the Persian leopard is returning to the Caucasus Mountain area and relevant habitat suitability for this species is in demand. In this study, we have mapped the habitats in the Chechen Republic area due to a lack of data from the 1980s onwards. We used remote sensing (RS) datasets, combined them with geobotanical and zoological field surveys data, and assessed the potential habitats of the main mammal species connected with leopards’ ecologically (preys and competitors) using machine learning approaches, such as supervised classification and modeling. The main material for the study is an up-to-date map of habitat types, based on multi-seasonal Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and field geobotanical data. Zoological field data were combined with environmental raster datasets covering the ecosystem properties and the effect of various factors (relief, climate, anthropogenic factors, etc.) on the probability of foraging, migration, nomadism, and hiding conditions for the studied species. Based on this information, habitat suitability modeling was conducted for leopard prey and competitor species (tur, bezoar goat, chamois, wild boar, roe deer, hare, badger, jackal, wolf, and bear). The suitability maps for each species were used to produce an integrated final map, taking into account the weighted impact of each species on the leopard’s habitat. A preliminary ecological network assessment was performed by overlay the habitat type map with the integrated suitability map. This investigation fully estimates the suitable area for the restoration of leopard grouping in the territory of Chechnya and its characteristics.