How Vacancy of Dwellings Influences Energy Renovations of Multifamily Buildings

The European climate change mitigation agenda aims to decarbonise all buildings by 2050. However, many existing buildings may not remain operational by this time due to rapid urbanisation and population decline in various regions of Europe, potentially leading to the abandonment of residential properties. The current EU renovation strategies often overlook the future of legacy buildings. The challenge lies in identifying which buildings are likely to become unserviceable and, therefore, unsuitable for significant energy efficiency upgrades. This study proposes the use of domestic consumption metering as a universal vacancy indicator to determine the actual underused dwellings in multifamily buildings. Our case study demonstrates that population registry-based datasets consistently overestimate vacancy rates when compared to the evidence provided by consumption metering data. Consumption-based vacancy rates exceeding 20 percent are associated with an unlikelihood of energy renovations, thereby impeding the aims of the energy efficiency transition. Spatial analysis reveals that vacancy rates increase as the distance from the regional centre to the building grows. This correlation indicates the presence of shrinking hinterlands and highlights the need to consider to what extent such regions should be targeted by incentives for energy renovations. We recommend utilising this vacancy indicator to estimate energy renovation scenarios in policymaking.