Assessing the impact of the built environment on independent living in the Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs) in Australia: A Bayesian network analysis

This paper investigates the impact of built environment as a system on the independent living of older adults in Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs) in Australia. Using Bayesian Network (BN) modeling, the research explores the intricate interdependencies among various built environment elements and their interactive effects on older people's independent living. The study collected data through structured questionnaires and applied confirmatory factor analyses to validate the data, followed by the construction and parameter learning of the BN model. Results highlight that safety from traffic/accidents and crime, housing environment, neighbourhood accessibility, and environment quality and aesthetics are crucial factors influencing the independent living of older residents in NORCs. Scenario analyses indicate that simulating multiple built environment factors simultaneously is more effective in promoting independence than addressing individual factors. Sensitivity analysis, predictive inferences and diagnostic inferences further suggest targeted interventions to enhance older adults' autonomy and quality of life. This research provides valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers, highlighting NORCs as an option to support ageing in place and emphasizing the need for evidence-based approaches to create supportive environments for older populations. • Investigates built environment effects on independent living in Australian NORCs. • Utilizes Bayesian Network modeling to explore interdependencies among factors. • Safety, housing, accessibility and aesthetics are key to older people's independence. • Simulating multiple factors is more effective than addressing individual ones. • Highlights the importance of evidence-based approaches for ageing in place