Analysis of The Energy Impact of Electric Vehicle Integration in Uruguay

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the integration of EVs in Uruguay between 2025 and 2040, based on data from the National Energy Balance (BEN) and the 2005–2030 Energy Policies (PE0530) document, aiming to analyze the impacts of the increasing adoption of EVs on the country's electrical system.. Theoretical Framework: The methodology of this research is based on the development of scenarios derived from indicators of the electric sector, transport sector, population, and vehicle fleet. It is structured around new indicators that allow the comparison of energy demand increases under three EV adoption rates in Uruguay: natural (1%), moderate (3%), and accelerated (10%). Python programming was used to evaluate the extrapolations of these indicators through Simple Linear Regression (RLS) and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), determining the most appropriate methodology using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics. Data were collected from governmental websites in Uruguay and other publicly accessible domains. Method: The methodology adopted for this research comprises [concisely describe the study design, including approach, participants, instruments, procedures, etc.]. Data collection was carried out through [explain the specific methods used, such as interviews, questionnaires, observations, among others]. Results and Discussion: The results revealed that EV adoption generates increasing impacts on electrical demand, with 1% and 3% scenarios showing controlled impacts, while the 10% scenario demonstrates a significant increase, requiring strategic adaptations to avoid overloading the electrical system. Despite the usefulness of RLS and SES projection methodologies, their limitations lie in their sensitivity to extreme variations and reliance on historical data, which may hinder accuracy in contexts of rapid changes or unforeseen factors, such as future policies or technological advancements. Research Implications: This study presents practical and theoretical implications, highlighting Uruguay's need to invest in the expansion of the SIN and renewable sources to meet potential future EV demand, as well as to implement integrated policies for electric mobility. Theoretically, it reinforces the use of methodologies like RLS and SES for robust projections, influencing sectors such as the automotive industry, adapting to electrification, and the environmental sector, through emissions reductions, showcasing the impact of interdisciplinary approaches. Originality/Value: This study adds value by highlighting how different scenarios affect the SIN infrastructure of a country, especially one powered by 97% renewable energy sources. The approach can guide the formulation of future energy policies, assisting in infrastructure planning, setting renewable generation targets, and promoting electric mobility. By quantifying demands and benefits, this study provides input for strategic decisions, supporting sustainable energy transition and aligning public policies.