METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FORECASTING SOURCES OF MILITARY THREATS TO ENSURING THE MILITARY SECURITY OF UKRAINE

The article proposes a methodological approach to forecasting the sources of military threats to ensure the military security of Ukraine. The methodological approach is based on forecasting the state of the international situation, the military-political situation and their interrelationships. Taking into account the trends in the development of modern civilization until 2035, it is proposed to take into account a number of key factors, namely: the influence of government structures as subjects of IDPs; the role of non-state actors; global trends in political, economic, information, communication and scientific and technological development. Two important megatrends are considered: demographic problems and the growing demand for food and resources. To solve the problem of forecasting the sources of military conflicts, a number of directions are proposed, namely: the creation of effective infrastructure; integration of modern technologies; development of a flexible management system; creation of a network of international cooperation.