Exploring offshore wind’s potential to enhance energy security in nations with limited land and fuel resources

Abstract Offshore wind (OSW) power is critical to addressing energy security issues in nations with limited land and fuel resources. This study aims to assess the quality of OSW resources with high temporal and spatial resolution and to elucidate the economically feasible deployment of OSW using advanced power system models with Japan as a case study. First, comprehensive evaluations of OSW resources were performed by integrating a geographic information system (GIS)-based resource assessment with simulated data for hourly resource availability and renewable power plant operation. Then, using the ‘SWITCH-Japan’ model developed in our previous study, four key policy scenarios (‘pathways’) were analyzed. Each scenario incorporated three technology cost sensitivities and was assessed on multiple criteria including affordability, energy security, and land-use change. Finally, the potential for hydrogen production in other sectors was explored. We found that the Least-Cost scenario, which accelerates renewable energy growth, reduces average system costs by 43% and increases energy self-sufficiency by 31 percentage point compared to the business-as-usual scenario. While it is a highly valuable resource, OSW nonetheless necessitates significant infrastructure development and potentially faces both stricter regulations and local opposition. In recognition of this, the Limited Onshore Resources scenario reduces direct land use by half but finds only a slight increase in overall costs. While the balance of OSW potential is utilized for power systems, the remainder can materially enhance energy security for entire economies. Ultimately, OSW energy presents a strategic opportunity for nations to achieve energy self-reliance and reduce import dependence, emphasizing the need for timely infrastructure development.