Climate change dominates over urbanization in tropical cyclone rainfall patterns

Abstract The role of climate change and urbanization has typically been considered in isolation of each other and it remains unclear which one has a more dominant effect in terms of changes in rainfall from tropical cyclones. Here, we employ a convection-permitting numerical model to quantify the relative effects of urbanization and climate change on rainfall from ten typhoons across a highly urbanized area in China. We show that climate change is largely responsible for the changes in the spatial pattern and amounts of rainfall from tropical cyclones; on the other hand, urbanization consistently contributes to the redistribution of rainfall, and its positive effects are comparable to those of climate change in the urban core. Although the role of the thermodynamic component in altering tropical-cyclone rainfall increases under a warming climate, these rainfall changes are still largely driven by dynamic effects, especially when considering the role of urbanization.