Emergency scenario modeling for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks

This study is novel, as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency. To this end, the CIA-ISM methodology, which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Model (ISM), allows the representation of all possible connections among risks, as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents, resources and variable environmental conditions. The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks, identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time. This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.