Methodological approaches to effective planning of enterprise profitability strategies based on scenario simulation method

In the new economic conditions formed under the influence of the global pandemic and military aggression, a new vision of the essence and sequence of specific actions is necessary to manage Ukrainian enterprises to make sound economic decisions and determine their further behavior in the market environment. The article considers the scenario planning method as part of the strategic planning of enterprises, which expands the possibilities of enterprise management in conditions of high uncertainty based on the construction of various future models. Theoretical approaches to the scenario method, its differences from traditional planning and forecasting methods, and its features are studied. The authors expressed that scenario planning cannot be equated with forecasting based on extrapolation of past periods; in contrast to forecasting methods, scenario planning models the future states of the object. It aims to assess the highest probability of obtaining a result and the consequences of performing a specific sequence and set of actions to achieve this result. With the help of the scenario method, you can get versatile options for changing the object to decide on developing a development strategy. Based on the simulated scenarios of the possible results of implementing profitability strategies depending on profit-making factors such as net income and cost of goods sold, the most effective profitability strategy was chosen in the existing conditions. Based on the analysis, it was concluded that the scenario planning method is used in cases where the usual forecasting methods are ineffective due to the lack of retrospective data or a significant change in the trend. Therefore, this method will be necessary and expedient in the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy. It was determined that obtaining objective results from modeling scenarios and developing strategies for scenario planning should contain not only formalized factors but also informalized ones. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario method, profitability strategies, strategy model, forecasting, correlation-regression analysis, substantiation of economic decisions, development planning.