Strategic Responses to Changes in the Korean Population Structure for Managing Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Plans: An Analysis of the Financial Stability of Retirement Pensions Amid Low Birth Rates and Aging Population

Korea faces significant demographic shifts, including low birth rates and a rapidly aging population, which pose challenges to the sustainability of Defined Benefit (DB) pension plans and broader economic stability. These demographic changes are expected to exacerbate fiscal pressures on pension systems, necessitating a reevaluation of current strategies. This study analyzes the impact of low birth rates and an aging population on the management of DB pension plans in Korea. The study predicts changes in pension fund performance across various demographic scenarios, based on population projection data from Statistics Korea, incorporating real-world constraints such as the initial asset allocation and the presence or absence of special contributions. The analysis reveals that the more severe the low birth rate and aging trends, the faster the depletion of DB pension funds. Furthermore, it empirically verifies that as future population inflows decrease, the standard contribution required to maintain stable pension fund management significantly increases. These findings suggest that strategic responses are necessary to ensure long-term financial stability for companies and secure benefit entitlements for workers in light of Korea's shifting demographic structure. In particular, given the current low investment returns in DB pension fund management, the study underscores the need to explore strategies to improve investment performance.