Artificial Intelligence based Intensity Estimation of Tropical Cyclones in North Indian Ocean: Current Status, Challenges & Future Directions

Tropical cyclones (TCs) that develop in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal pose a serious threat to the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The main agency in charge of monitoring tropical cyclones in the NIO is the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which also offers early warnings in accordance with the TC’s Intensity. The present paper has addressed the state of intensity estimation for thermal currents (TCs) worldwide, with a focus on the NIO region. Conventionally, the Dvorak technique and its various versions are being used for satellite images to detect the intensity of TCs manually; however, a lot of efforts have been invested to develop artificial intelligence based alternatives for this. The paper examines the importance of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) for estimating the intensity of TCs and their advantages over satellite images. The performance of the current IMD system is also highlighted in this paper. The average annual absolute intensity forecast skill for TCs in the period of 2013 to 2023 has been reported to be 74.95%. Further, the paper outlines existing challenges in the present system of intensity estimation for TCs. Finally, the paper outlines future research directions and underscores the critical need for an efficient artificial intelligence-based system for better intensity estimation of TCs.