Net-zero transition model of Alberta’s heavy-duty trucking sector

• Assesses feasibility of achieving Canadian targets for zero-emission truck sales. • New stock, flow and energy model for heavy-duty trucks including kilometer decline. • Assesses whole value chain requirements for battery and H 2 vehicle deployment. • Concludes that 2030 target for 35% of sales to be zero-emission is not achievable. • Identifies immediate need for infrastructure investments to meet 2040 target. As part of Canada’s commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, Canada has set a zero-emission vehicle target of 35% of new heavy-duty (Class 8, 15+ t gross vehicle weight) truck sales by 2030 and near 100% by 2040. To assess the implications of these targets, a stock and flow model was combined with a vehicle-kilometre travelled model to quantify the changes required to transition from diesel vehicles to battery electric (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) in the province of Alberta. Given the BEV and FCEV vehicles and the supporting infrastructure that are available today, the 35%-by-2030 target was assessed to not be achievable. However, a target of 95% of new vehicles sales by 2040 could be achieved if work began immediately to design and build the necessary infrastructure, especially in providing cost-effective, low GHG hydrogen along critical corridors to support long haul transport.