The Exploration and Establishment of an Economic Operation Monitoring and Early Warning Model Driven by Big Data

The tobacco industry is a crucial component of the national economy. Enhancing the foresight, relevance, and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation to ensure that the cigarette economy operates within a reasonable range is vital for improving macroeconomic alignment and stabilizing its contribution. This study proposes a monitoring index system for the cigarette economy. The SARIMA model is applied to forecast key indicators scientifically, while algorithms like the BP neural network and the prosperity index establish a big data-driven early warning system for cigarette economic operations. This system identifies real-time trends, detects abnormal fluctuations, shifts from reactive regulation to proactive prevention, and provides data-driven support for management decisions.