National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate

ABSTRACT Most national assessments of climate change‐related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process‐based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high‐level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre‐industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.