Analysis of migration to Turkey through macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from the period 2004-2024

This study investigates the effects of migration to Turkey between 2004 and 2024 on macroeconomic indicators such as growth, unemployment, and inflation. Turkey, which has experienced significant migration waves throughout history due to its geopolitical location, has hosted millions of migrants, especially since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. The data used in this research were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), the World Bank, the Presidency of Migration Management, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The findings of the analysis show that there is a bidirectional causality between migration and economic growth and that there is a bidirectional effect based on low wages and informal work in the employment market. The research findings also show that migrant labor suppresses wages and increases unemployment, and the informal economy expands, thus limiting growth in the long term. Although the inflation effect has increased demand pressure through migrants' basic needs, it is understood that this situation is mainly due to market imbalances. The research findings also found that migration significantly impacts Turkey's macroeconomic indicators.