Epidemiological features and temporal trends of burns and their subtypes, 1990–2021: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Burns present a significant clinical challenge and are a critical global public health concern. Existing studies primarily focus on specific countries or regions, resulting in a lack of comprehensive global epidemiological data. This study aims to assess the disease burden of burns across various regions, providing crucial insights for policy decisions to mitigate their impact. This ecological time-series study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to analyze the incidence and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) for burn injuries categorized as “burns < 20%” (<20% total burned surface area without lower airway burns), “burns ≥ 20%” ( ≥20% TBSA or ≥10% if head/neck or hands/wrist involved, without lower airway burns), and “lower airway burns” from 1990 to 2021. We calculated percentage change (PC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to assess trends in age-standardized rates (ASRs). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was used to validate correlations between ASRs and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Gaussian curves were employed to analyze associations between EAPC rates and the SDI, while a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model examined the effects of age, period, and cohort. From 1990–2021, burns showed a significant decline in ASIR and ASR-YLDs, particularly for burns < 20 % and burns ≥ 20 %. In 2021, burns < 20 % and lower airway burns correlated positively with the SDI, while burns ≥ 20 % exhibited a negative correlation (P < 0.05). The predominant causes of burns include fire, heat, and hot substances. Based on current trends, projections suggest a continued global decline in both ASIR and ASR-YLDs for all types of burns from 2022 to 2035. This comprehensive study advances the epidemiological understanding of global burn injuries by providing detailed subgroup analyses that inform healthcare planning and targeted intervention strategies. • This study analyzes burn injury burden categories using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to enhance global epidemiological insights. • Between 1990 and 2021, there was a decrease in Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) for burn injuries. Projections indicate continued improvement until 2035. • Analysis reveals varied correlations between burn injury types and socio-demographic indices (SDI): burns < 20% and lower airway burns positively correlate with SDI, while burns ≥ 20% exhibit a negative correlation, highlighting the need for customized public health interventions.