Validation of a Real-Time MUF Forecast Model in HF Communication Based on Real-Time Detection

Accurately forecasting the available frequency of a link is a prerequisite for high-frequency communication. To enhance the accuracy of the maximum usable frequency (MUF) forecast, this paper presents a real-time MUF forecasting model (SPM) comprising four key processes: 1) inverting the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) from the maximum observed frequency (MOF) using ray theory; 2) forecasting foF2 with a geometrically weighted algorithm; 3) reconstructing foF2 using the Kriging method based on geomagnetic coordinates; and 4) performing real-time MUF forecasting using the Lockwood model. A test link was established to compare the performance of the SPM model with the Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOACAP) and the Long-term Prediction Model (LPM) corrected by ITU-R P.533. The results demonstrate that, compared to VOACAP and LPM, the SPM model reduces the RMSE by 1.31 MHz and 0.77 MHz, respectively, with RRMSE values of 30.45%, 24.69%, and 15.53% for the three models. These findings highlight the advantages of applying the SPM model to real-world links and offer valuable insights for engineering applications.