AI-Integrated Geology-Engineering Workflow for Hydraulic Fracture Evaluation and Production Prediction

ABSTRACT: The increasing development of unconventional shale gas reservoirs necessitates more efficient and accurate methods for hydraulic fracture evaluation and reservoir production forecasting. This study introduces an AI-integrated geology-engineering workflow to optimize fracture geometry and production performance using GPU-based supercomputing. The workflow centers around the ZFRAC hydraulic fracture simulator, which employs the boundary element method (BEM) for fracture modeling and integrates XGBoost for calibration with pumping pressure data. A deep shale gas well in the Sichuan Basin, China, was modeled using detailed geomechanical parameters and 28 hydraulic fracturing stages. The fracture geometry was calibrated to reflect the actual reservoir conditions, achieving a 90% accuracy. The calibrated fractures were incorporated into the Embedded Discrete Fracture Model (EDFM) for production simulation and forecasting. The Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) was predicted to be 0.163 billion cubic meters (bcm) over 20 years. The economic evaluation yielded a Net Present Value (NPV) of 27.4 million Chinese Yuan and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of +1.96% after 20 years. These results highlight the effectiveness of the workflow in optimizing fracture design and predicting long-term reservoir performance, offering valuable insights for future shale gas developments. 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, the development of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs has accelerated, driven by growing energy demand and advancements in extraction technologies. Shale gas reservoirs, particularly in the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China, have become a focal point due to their vast resource potential. The Sichuan Basin is one of the world's most prolific shale gas regions, with significant reserves trapped in tight formations that require enhanced stimulation techniques for optimal extraction (Yong et al., 2019; Zeng et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2023, 2024). Hydraulic fracturing is the primary method used to unlock these resources, but with the increasing number of wells and multi-pad developments, comprehensive evaluation of the fracturing process is essential. These assessments are critical for ensuring optimal performance, maximizing resource recovery, and minimizing operational inefficiencies.