Analyzing the Evolution of the Chinese Vehicles Market by Lotka–Volterra Model

This study investigates the dynamic evolution of the new energy vehicle (NEV) and the traditional fuel vehicle (TFV) industries in China by employing the Lotka–Volterra model. Considering the reality of the Chinese automobile market, we focus on the three stages of the development of the NEV industry to analyze the stability of the fixed point of the system. The result demonstrates the gap in market share between the NEV and the TFV industries is decreasing year by year. With the model analysis on policy intensity from the government to the TFV and the NEV industries from 2025 to 2034, we find that the relative policies about automobile markets from the government play a key role in the development of the NEV, especially in automobile electrification transition. In about five years, the market share of the NEV industry will exceed that of the TFV industry. And eventually, most of the TFVs will have been replaced by the NEV by 2035.