The impact of new urbanization pilot policies on carbon emissions in China’s small and medium-sized cities

Abstract To combat global warming, advancing the shift from extensive traditional urbanization to intelligent, green, and low-carbon new urbanization is essential for the high-quality and sustainable development of the Chinese economy. This paper considers the comprehensive pilot policy for new urbanization as a ‘quasi-natural experiment,’ and assesses the current status of carbon emissions using panel data from 139 small and medium-sized Chinese cities between 2006 and 2019. The direct effects of the new urbanization pilot policies on carbon emissions in small and medium-sized cities were assessed using the difference-in-differences (DID) method. The robustness of the findings was further validated through parallel trend tests and propensity score matching DID methods. Subsequently, the mediating effect model was employed to explore the mechanisms by which the new urbanization pilot policies affect carbon emissions in Chinese small and medium-sized cities. The findings are as follows: (1) In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the level of carbon emissions in China’s small and medium-sized cities, with emissions in the western and northeastern regions notably lower than those in the central and eastern regions. (2) Compared to non-pilot regions, the new urbanization pilot policies have significantly reduced carbon emissions in pilot regions. (3) The new urbanization pilot policies reduce carbon emissions in small and medium-sized cities by optimizing the industrial structure and enhancing green innovation.