Examining Ecology–Agriculture–Economy Nexus Shifts to Propose Win–Win–Win Pathways for Sustainable Development in Mountainous Areas: Insights From the Greenest City in China

ABSTRACT Ecosystem restoration projects (ERPs) are effective methods for reversing land degradation. However, the dynamic responses of the ecology–agriculture–economy nexus to ERPs and socioeconomic development have yet to be systematically analyzed. To address this issue, we adopted an ERP hotspot as a basis for exploring the evolution regimes of sectoral variables and their determinants. ERPs facilitated vegetation restoration and strengthened carbon sequestration and soil retention, whereas grain productivity declined sharply since 2000 because of industrial and planting structure adjustments. Economic growth was accompanied by marked industrial transformation; the dominant role of the primary industry was gradually replaced by that of other industries, with the population and employment structures changing accordingly. Rural population loss weakened the agricultural production capacity, with the promotion of economic crops further degrading the dominant role of grain crops. Such nexus shifts indicated that positive progress in the ecological and economic sectors should be further optimized to reserve sufficient space for agricultural production and industrial development, instead of relying solely on expanding afforestation areas. Notably, the temporary synergic co‐evolution of nexus sectors from 2008 to 2022 is not stable because of the low grain self‐sufficiency ratio, which might threaten the sustainability of social‐ecological systems. Therefore, agricultural production efficiency must be improved through large‐scale production and improvements in agricultural production conditions to sustain the grain supply. The nexus perspective enriches our understanding of interlinkages among sectors in different phases, facilitating the formulation of coordinated strategies for regional sustainable development.