Analysis of spatio-temporal changes in greenhouse gas emissions from the domestic rice cultivation sector by according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model

Rice cultivation is a significant source of methane emissions, contributing substantially to the agricultural sector's greenhouse gas inventory. In this study, we applied the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies in South Korea, analyzing spatial and temporal changes under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate scenarios. Our results indicate that soil organic carbon is the most influential factor driving emissions, with regions rich in organic carbon showing the highest levels of methane emissions. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, which assumes strong climate mitigation efforts, emissions increase slightly in early decades (2030s ~ 2050s) but stabilize in later decades (2050s ~ 2070s). In contrast, the SSP5-8.5 scenario, characterized by minimal climate action, projects a significant rise in emissions throughout the 21st century. Spatial analysis reveals that regions with high emissions per hectare do not necessarily have the highest total emissions, as total emissions are also influenced by the extent of cultivated land. Traditional rice-growing regions along the west coast, despite lower per-hectare emissions, show higher total emissions due to their larger cultivation areas. These findings underscore the need for targeted mitigation strategies that address both emission intensity and scale, highlighting the importance of soil organic carbon management. Our study offers valuable insights for sustainable agricultural policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining productivity in the face of climate change.