The shifting relationship between educational attainment and poverty: analysis of seven deep southern states

Investment in both public and private education is aimed at achieving socioeconomic goals, including the reduction of poverty. While a large body of evidence has established a clear negative relationship between education and poverty, policymakers are often in disagreement about the returns to different levels of educational attainment (for example, bachelor’s vs. associate degrees). In this study, the relationship between education and poverty is examined to determine variations over time and space. Census tract-level data were compiled from the 2010–2014 and 2017–2021 5-Year American Community Survey for seven “Deep South” states, widely acknowledged as the poorest region in the USA. Multiscale geographically weighted regression results reveal a shift in the education–poverty relationship from a local scale in the earlier period to a more global relationship in recent years. The results indicate significant shifts in how poverty interacts with educational attainment over time, with associate degrees becoming less influential, while the relationship with bachelor’s degrees expands dramatically. These results highlight the need to consider local and temporal context when considering investments in education. The effects of other economic and demographic factors are also reported.