Contextual Background Estimation for Explainable AI in Temperature Prediction

Accurate weather prediction and electrical load modeling are critical for optimizing energy systems and mitigating environmental impacts. This study explores the integration of the novel Mean Background Method and Background Estimation Method with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) with the aim to enhance the evaluation and understanding of time-series models in these domains. The electrical load or temperature predictions are regression-based problems. Some XAI methods, such as SHAP, require using the base value of the model as the background to provide an explanation. However, in contextualized situations, the default base value is not always the best choice. The selection of the background can significantly affect the corresponding Shapley values. This paper presents two innovative XAI methods designed to provide robust context-aware explanations for regression and time-series problems, addressing critical gaps in model interpretability. They can be used to improve background selection to make more conscious decisions and improve the understanding of predictions made by models that use time-series data.