Enhancing High-Speed Railway Timetable Resilience: A Two-Level Spatiotemporal Network Model Focused on Disturbance Absorption

Abstract Enhancing the resilience of train timetables can effectively improve their resistance and recovery capabilities against operational disturbances, thereby ensuring the stable operation of the railway system and the quality of passenger transportation services. This paper defined timetable resilience as three parts: disturbance absorptive capacity, resistance capacity, and post-disturbance recovery capacity. These capacities were quantitatively evaluated using the buffer time of trains, the number of train delays at departures and arrivals, and the duration of delay state. The evaluation metrics of the three resilience capacities and the total travel time of trains were used as the objective to establish a spatiotemporal network model. Utilizing actual operational data from the Beijing–Shanghai high-speed railway in China, the model was validated through a case study. Sensitivity analysis of the model's key parameters was conducted under two experimental scenarios: routine operational disturbances and speed restrictions on specific sections. Results showed that our model can effectively reduce the delay time and the number of delays in both the routine operational disturbance scenario and the 300 km/h speed restriction scenario with a frequent disturbance value of 2 min. Moreover, the model's performance with 3-min frequent disturbance outperformed that with 2-min frequent disturbance in speed restriction at 250 km/h and 200 km/h, yielding a 30% improvement.