Predictive scale for in-hospital death in patients with acute heart failure

Introduction: In the context of the prevention of cardiovascular diseases, the high mortality of acute heart failure is a challenge. Objective: Design a scale, based on identified risk factors, for the prediction of early hospital death due to acute heart failure.Methods: An analytical, observational prospective cohort study was carried out that included 127 patients with acute heart failure admitted to the emergency room of the “Saturnino Lora” Provincial Clinical-Surgical Hospital in Santiago de Cuba, from September 2020 to June 2024. They were developed as variable dependent on the patient's condition and as independent of hypothetical clinical, hematological and echocardiographic prognostic factors. The scale was derived from binary logistic regression analysis of the identified cardiovascular risk factors. Results: As the scale score increased, the percentage of deceased patients increased. The area under the curve was 0.881 (p= 0.000) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test obtained p=0.129.Conclusions: The proposed scale made it possible to predict early hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure, with very good discrimination and calibration capacity.