Modeling of financial performance of urban electric transport enterprises in the war and post-war periods

The object of research is the financial indicators of urban electric transport enterprises. The problem of modeling of the main financial indicators of the activities of urban electric transport enterprises of Ukraine in the war and post-war period is considered. Their research and analysis are a necessary condition for a general and comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the functioning and financial capacity of enterprises in the industry. This will allow assessing the profitability level and will allow predicting the ability of enterprises to fulfill their main duties – to transport passengers within cities, as well as adequately respond to the variability of external and internal factors of influence. The input data used were performance indicators (namely, income and expenses) of enterprises that are part of the Ukrelectrotrans Corporation and are located in large cities of Ukraine – Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. The profit of the specified enterprises was modeled and their forecast values in the future period were determined. A conceptual approach was formed to forecast profit, which includes 6 main stages, which are sequentially described in this work. The trend for determining the profit of enterprises with the best result according to the criterion of reliability of approximation is presented, and the results of modeling of the forecast values of enterprise profits for 2025–2026 are also presented. However, the obtained forecast values indicate a deterioration in the financial indicators of the studied enterprises due to a number of variable internal and external factors. Namely: military operations, objective economic difficulties, a decrease in demand for transport services, the absence of changes in tariff policy, imperfect and outdated methods of enterprise management, insufficient support from the state and local governments, and an almost complete lack of investment in the industry. A number of recommendations are offered to the heads of transport enterprises to ensure the effective use of financial resources for the restoration and further development of urban transport systems in Ukrainian cities. However, the question of how universal these recommendations can be for all urban electric transport enterprises without taking into account the specifics of each city of Ukraine remains debatable. It is important that the proposed measures be adapted to the real conditions, capabilities and needs of each specific enterprise.