Application and Optimization Study of ARIMA Model in Electricity Prosperity Index Forecasting

With the close connection between economic growth and electricity demand, how to predict the economic development trend through electricity data has become a key issue in power system planning. Therefore, this study proposes the “Electricity Prosperity Index” (EPI), which aims to quantify the correlation between electricity data and economic development, and to provide a forward-looking economic forecasting index. Based on this, this study applies and optimizes the ARIMA model to predict the power prosperity index. Firstly, the power prosperity index is constructed, and the data source, feature extraction and processing methods are systematically elaborated; then, the precision and stability of its prediction of economic development trend are improved by the parameter optimization and model structure adjustment of the ARIMA model. The experimental results show that the optimized ARIMA model can accurately predict the power prosperity index, better reflect the future economic development trend, and provide a scientific basis for the forward-looking planning of the power system.