Key Indexes Identifying Approach of Weapon Equipment System-of-Systems Effectiveness Integrating Bayes Method and Dynamic Grey Incidence Analysis Model

Aiming at the characteristics of multi-stage and (extremely) small samples of the identification problem of key effectiveness indexes of weapon equipment system-of-systems (WESoS), a Bayesian intelligent identification and inference model for system effectiveness assessment indexes based on dynamic grey incidence is proposed. The method uses multi-layer Bayesian techniques, makes full use of historical statistics and empirical information, and determines the Bayesian estimation of the incidence degree of indexes, which effectively solves the difficulties of small sample size of effectiveness indexes and difficulty in obtaining incidence rules between indexes. Secondly, The method quantifies the incidence relationship between evaluation indexes and combat effectiveness based on Bayesian posterior grey incidence, and then identifies key system effectiveness evaluation indexes. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a case of screening key effectiveness indexes of a missile defensive system, and the analysis results show that the proposed method can fuse multi-moment information and extract multi-stage key indexes, and has good data extraction capability in the case of small samples.