Evaluating the Impact of Urban Form Evolution on Urban Energy Performance and Renewable Energy Potential Using Agent-Based Modeling

This paper presents an agent-based modeling framework to quantify the impact of evolving urban forms on urban energy performance and renewable energy potential. The framework leverages energy modeling tools, large public datasets, and urban form classifications to assess urban performance along various techno-economic metrics (e.g., self-sufficiency and energy costs). A case study of the historical evolution of the urban form of the city of Toronto, Canada, is presented, focusing on the transition from large low-rise to open high-rise urban forms. Results show that increasing the proportion of open high-rise areas from 0 to 25% increased the net energy ratio from 22% to 72%, implying higher reliance on the grid to match demand. While a denser urban form challenges energy self-sufficiency and net-zero emissions goals, aggregating buildings' energy demand and supply at the community level has improved self-sufficiency levels, offering a promising avenue for future urban energy planning and policy efforts.