Estimating and Projecting the Economic Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on the US Economy Through an Updated HIV Microsimulation Model

This paper proposes a comprehensively calibrated HIV simulation model, validated against HIV prevalence, related mortality, and viral load suppression rates. The model is designed for epidemiological forecasting and policy analysis. Using this model, we estimated the economic impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the U.S. The model tracks the progression of the HIV epidemic on an individual basis, considering factors such as sex, age, transmission risk, and treatment adherence to project HIV prevalence and treatment statistics through 2040. It predicts an increase in the U.S. HIV population from 1.20 million in 2022 to 1.24 million by 2030, with a subsequent decrease to 1.21 million by 2040, reflecting demographic shifts and enhancements in ART access and effectiveness. Economically, the model predicts a significant rise in financial burden, with costs increasing from 38 billion US dollars in 2023 to 60 billion US dollars by 2040.