An Agent-Based Model to Assess Interventions for Continuous Care of Cardiovascular Diseases After Natural Disasters

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is contributing significantly to rising death rates in the U.S. Furthermore, areas susceptible to natural disasters face more challenges. When a disaster strikes, a part of the population seeks refuge in shelters where access to essential treatments is limited. The limitation of treatments results in a higher mortality rate among individuals with CVD. In response, this research presents an agent-based model to explore the repercussions of CVD patients lacking access to essential treatment. The model is built to represent the potential impact on health outcomes of individuals with CVD conditions that might be relocated to shelters during a hurricane event. The simulation results show an average 14% rise in CVD mortality after hurricane occurrences which approximately represent the rates observed from hurricane events in Texas. The model is an instrument to forecast long-term health outcomes and to plan for public health interventions associated with disaster relief.