Research on Factors Related to the Development of New Energy Vehicles Based on ARIMA Time Series Forecasting

This paper analyzes factors and influences related to the development of new energy vehicles in China. First, wefound and analyzed factors related to the development of new energy vehicles in China, such as environmental pollution, policy subsidies, gasoline prices, and economic conditions. We conducted K-S tests, utilized Spearman correlation analysis, and employed multiple linear regression models in SPSS. Then, we observed strong seasonality in the monthlysales time series of new energy vehicles. Hence, we chose to use the ARIMA model for analysis to predict the development of new energy electric vehicles in China over the next decade. Subsequently, we collected variables such as new energy electric vehicle penetration rate, international oil prices, traditional energy vehicle sales, new energy electric vehicle sales, global new energy vehicle stock, and global traditional vehicle stock. Using the TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model, we concluded that the development of new energy electric vehicles will become a dominant trend in the market, significantly impacting the traditional automobile market. Moreover, our team systematically collected-information on negative policies towards China each year, quantified the factors influencing the impact of policies on the development of new energy vehicles, and defined it as the Policy Sanctions Index. Finally, we collected nationwide data and scaled the vehicle ownership based on population. Using the carbon emission calculation formula, we established a mathematical model to analyze the impact of the electrification of new energy electric vehicles on the carbon emission index.