Expert-Decision-Based Scheduling Strategies for Construction Projects Management

This paper presents an alternative methodology to the traditional Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) by introducing the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence into project scheduling. The evidence theory provides a flexible and robust framework for managing subjective beliefs, extending beyond PERT's rigid assumptions regarding activity durations and aligning more closely with the inherent uncertainties of real-world project environments. The proposed evidential reasoning approach enhances flexibility in estimating activity durations by leveraging expert judgment rather than relying on fixed probability distributions. Unlike PERT, which strictly assumes a beta distribution and fixed percentages for optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates, this approach enables experts to adjust these percentages dynamically based on real-time project conditions. Through a detailed case study on a bridge construction project, this paper demonstrates the advantages of evidential reasoning in addressing limitations of traditional PERT. A comparative analysis validates the Dempster-Shafer theory's effectiveness, showing improved scheduling outcomes and adaptability.