Phenological stability of steppe plants under changing climate conditions in Central Yakutia

The response of biota to both global and regional climate changes represents a critical topic extensively examined in the scientific literature. This study aims to investigate the correlation between climatic changes in Central Yakutia and the phenological development of three indigenous steppe plant species. The species under consideration include Gagea pauciflora, Phlox sibirica, and Phlomoides tuberosa , which belong to different rhythmological groups. The research employed data from long-term phenological observations conducted in accordance with the methodology established by I.N. Beydeman (1974). A comprehensive analysis of the long-term climatic and phenological data reveals that the changing climate in Central Yakutia elicits a modest yet complex phenological response among the studied species. Notably, Gagea pauciflora , an ephemeroid, demonstrates the highest degree of phenological stability over a 50-year observation period, with all recorded shifts in its phenological development remaining statistically insignificant at the 0.05 level. The seasonal development of Gagea pauciflora occurs primarily in May and June and exhibits minimal sensitivity to meteorological conditions, indicating the species’ resilience to spring temperature fluctuations. Statistically significant alterations in phenological timing were noted exclusively during the vegetation termination phase for Phlox sibirica and Phlomoides tuberosa . The observed inertia in the phenological responses of these species to the climatic changes in Central Yakutia underscores a diverse array of adaptations among plants to northern environmental conditions, tenabling them to resist regional climate shifts and sustain phenological stability.