Weekly Options on Grain Futures

Abstract We analyze 2017–2021 data to examine whether weekly options offer unique insights compared to regular options on grain futures. These weeklies, increasingly popular for short-term use around major United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports, are found to be more effective in predicting near-term volatility, challenging the conventional view of longer-dated options’ superiority. However, they overprice realized volatility by 420 basis points (bps) for corn and 280 bps for soybeans. Major USDA reports add a premium of 650 bps for corn and 240 bps for soybeans, highlighting a trend toward more time-sensitive trading strategies, though the long-term impact on market efficiency of weeklies remains subdued.