The 15-year risk of colorectal cancer: prognostic significance of risk factors of chronic non-communicable diseases with aging

Objective: to investigate the prognostic significance of risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC) in an ageing population cohort (Novosibirsk). Materials and methods: The study was performed on a representative population sample (Novosibirsk) examined in the HAPIEE project (2003-2005). The analysis included 6061subjects, 152 of whom (73 men, 79 women) had an incident CRC diagnosed during the 15-year follow-up (2003-2015). Cases were identified by linking cancer registry with the cohort database, ICD-10 was used. We used Cox regression models to analyze the association between risk factors and CRC. Results: The multivariable-adjusted 15-year risk of CRC in men was higher compared to women (HR=1.76; 95% CI:1.12-2.77). The risk of CRC was positively associated with age in both men (HR per year 1.11; 95% CI:1.07-1.15) and women (HR per year 1.09; 95% CI:1.05-1.14). In men with a positive family history of malignant neoplasms (MN) of any location, the risk of CRC was increased (HR=1.90; 95% CI:1.14-3.17). The presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with the risk of CRC in women (HR=1.97; 95% CI:1.10-3.53). Conclusions: In studied population cohort aged 45-69, the risk of CRC is positively associated with male gender. Positive associations were also identified between CRC and age in both sexes, the family history of MN of any location in men, and the presence of type 2 diabetes in women. Keywords: colorectal cancer, smoking, alcohol consumption, blood lipids, type 2 diabetes, body mass index.