Evaluating the Sustainability of the Productive Effects of a Universal Cash Transfer in Rural Uganda: Do Impacts on Savings, Investment, Production and Labour Persist After Program end?

Abstract The productive impacts of cash transfer (CT) programs have not been widely studied, though interest in this area is growing, with existing evidence generally pointing to rather positive findings. Notably, one key takeaway from the (limited) available research is the debunking of a common criticism drawn against cash transfers and social assistance, more in general – namely, the assumption that social programs disincentivize or discourage work. Even less is known about the sustainability of CT impacts, as these interventions are typically designed as short-term programs. To address this gap, we conducted a quasi-experimental study of a universal unconditional cash transfer initiative in rural Uganda. Our study examined whether effects on savings, debt, investment, incomes, assets and labour allocation (if any) persisted after the end of the transfer. Despite the concurrent outbreak of COVID-19, our findings revealed several sustained impacts, particularly on savings, (agricultural) incomes and business ownership.