Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Yield in some Climate Regions of Nigeria using DSSAT Version 4.8.2

Conducting regional sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on maize yield in Nigeria is important for understanding vulnerability and complex interactions between climate variables and agricultural productivity vital for developing effective strategies that ensure food security, economic stability and sustainable developments. In this analysis we carried out planting, weather and cultivar sensitivity analysis using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) latest version 4.8.2 in Savanna and Sahel climate regions of Nigeria and also forecast yield up to 2100. We used statistical analysis to help identify and quantify the extent to which climate variables are related to maize yields, to reveal how changes in climate might affect agricultural productivity. The correlation and multiple regression analysis show that maize yield is impacted negatively by the solar radiation (SRD), average air temperature (Ta) and evapotranspiration (ET) but positively by precipitation (PRCP). A unit increase in SRD, ET and Ta leads to a decrease in maize yield by about 100kg/ha, 2kg/ha and 200kg/ha respectively, while it is increased by about 4kg/ha by a unit increase in precipitation in the region. The P-value <0.05 of the resulting intercept shows that it is of importance in the developed model. Change in mean temperature has greatest significant impact on maize yield because it has the highest regression coefficient (0.2) with low standard error (0.06). These regression coefficients are location-based so can be calibrated for other regions. Heteroscedasticity test using Breusch-Pagan method is conducted to determine the trustworthiness of the developed equation.