Study on Evaluation and Dynamic Early Warning of Urban Water Resources Security

Water resources security is crucial to the survival and development of human society. A water resources security assessment and dynamic early warning system was constructed. The weights of water resources evaluation indexes were calculated by the entropy weight method, and the water resources security was evaluated with the comprehensive index method. The obstacle degree model was used to identify and analyze the main obstacle factors. The grey model was adopted to predict the future water resources security situation. The empirical study was carried out in Jinan. The results showed that the grade of water resources security in Jinan from 2008 to 2021 showed a gradually increasing trend. The obstacle factors were mainly concentrated in the pressure subsystem, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources was the main problem affecting water resources security, which was accorded with the actual situation. The comprehensive index of water resources security from 2022 to 2026 shows a gradually increasing trend on the whole, and the warning situation develops towards a good trend, indicating that remarkable results in comprehensively building a water-saving society and vigorously promoting water pollution control have been achieved. The measures such as optimizing economic structure, improving water use structure, and improving water use efficiency will promote the further development of water resources security in Jinan.