Graph Representation Learning for Dengue Forecasting

The global expansion of the dengue belt, driven by climate change and increased urbanization, has led to a significant rise in dengue cases worldwide (1). Early warning systems (EWS) coupled with prompt public health response mechanisms are crucial in mitigating dengue-related morbidity and mortality globally. In Sri Lanka, dengue transmission occurs year-round with two peaks correlating to the southwest monsoon from May to September and the northeast monsoon from October to January (2). The presence of multiple dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) complicates epidemiological patterns, as sequential infections with different serotypes can increase the risk of severe disease manifestations detected by surveillance systems (3). Understanding and integrating these virological dynamics, vector dynamics, and real-time surveillance data are essential for developing effective EWS and targeted public health interventions. We propose the use of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) as an EWS. Using Earth observational data from NASA’s global satellites and dengue incidence data from Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Health, we developed traditional and graph-based EWS to forecast dengue cases across Sri Lanka’s 25 districts between 2013 and 2022. We demonstrate empirically that GNNs incorporating spatiotemporal relations significantly outperform traditional EWS models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our source code is available on GitHub.