Evaluating and Reducing Subgroup Disparity in AI Models Predicting Pediatric COVID-19 Test Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence (AI) fairness in healthcare settings has attracted significant attention due to the concerns to propagate existing health disparities. Despite ongoing research, the frequency and extent of subgroup fairness have not been sufficiently studied. In this study, we extracted a nationally representative pediatric dataset (ages 0-17, n=9,935) from the US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) concerning COVID-19 test outcomes. For subgroup disparity assessment, we trained 50 models using five machine learning algorithms. We assessed the models’ area under the curve (AUC) on 12 small (<15% of the total n) subgroups defined using social economic factors versus the on the overall population. Our results show that subgroup disparities were prevalent (50.7%) in the models. Subgroup AUCs were generally lower, with a mean difference of 0.01, ranging from -0.29 to +0.41. Notably, the disparities were not always statistically significant, with four out of 12 subgroups having statistically significant disparities across models. Additionally, we explored the efficacy of synthetic data in mitigating identified disparities. The introduction of synthetic data enhanced subgroup disparity in 57.7% of the models. The mean AUC disparities for models with synthetic data decreased on average by 0.03 via resampling and 0.04 via generative adversarial network methods.