Predicting marine habitat for marbled murrelets during breeding and nonbreeding seasons in the Salish Sea, British Columbia, Canada

The marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a small seabird inhabiting coastal regions along the Pacific coast of North America, and nests in old-growth forests usually within 80 km from shore. The Canadian population of marbled murrelets is listed as Threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act. To investigate the species' marine distribution, we conducted analyses of the occurrence of marbled murrelets at-sea between 2000 and 2022, utilizing at-sea and marine shoreline surveys in the Canadian portion of the Salish Sea. The data were divided into breeding season (April to August) and non-breeding season (September to March) to examine the relationship between environmental covariates and the species' distribution. We considered terrestrial covariates related to potential nesting habitat, as well as marine covariates related to Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus) quality habitat, slope, depth, streams, tidal currents, shorelines and climate indices (NPGO). We compared marine distribution between breeding and nonbreeding seasons and predicted variations in covariate relationships. Our study focuses on identifying averaged relationships and key spatial areas to gauge habitat quality at a landscape scale. Using a Generalized Additive Modelling approach, we found that both marine and terrestrial covariates contributed to predicting murrelet distribution during both seasons. Notably, Pacific sand lance habitat played a significant role in both the breeding and nonbreeding season, while the overall amount of nesting habitat within an 80 km radius influenced occurrence probability in the nonbreeding season. Our analysis accurately predicted distribution patterns at a resolution of 3 x 3 km with an AUC of 0.89 and AUPRC of 0.52 for the breeding season, and AUC of 0.88 and a AUPRC of 0.28 for non-breeding season. Overall, our study highlights both terrestrial and marine drivers that influence the marine distribution of this threatened species and informs Canadian conservation efforts.