Ensemble Kalman, adaptive Gaussian mixture, and particle flow filters for optimized earthquake occurrence estimation

Probabilistic forecasts are regarded as the highest achievable goal when predicting earthquakes, but limited information on stress, strength, and governing parameters of the seismogenic sources affects their accuracy. Ensemble data-assimilation methods, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), estimate these variables by combining physics-based models and observations. While the EnKF has demonstrated potential in perfect model experiments using earthquake simulators governed by rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws, challenges arise from the non-Gaussian distribution of state variables during seismic cycle transitions. This study investigates the Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Filter (AGMF) and the Particle Flow Filter (PFF) as alternatives for improved stress and velocity estimation in earthquake sequences compared to Gaussian-based methods like the EnKF. We test the AGMF and the PFF’s performance using Lorenz 96 and Burridge–Knopoff 1D models which are, respectively, standard simplified atmospheric and earthquake models. This approach, using widely recognized and commonly used testbed models in their fields, makes the methods and findings accessible to both the data assimilation and seismology communities, while supporting comparisons and collaboration. We test these models in periodic, and aperiodic conditions, and analyze the impact of assuming Gaussian priors on the estimates of the ensemble methods. The PFF demonstrated comparable performance in chaotic scenarios, yielding lower RMSE for the estimates of the Lorenz 96 models and stronger resilience to underdispersion for the Burridge–Knopoff 1D models. This is vital given the limited and sparse historical earthquake data, underscoring the PFF’s potential in enhancing earthquake forecasting. These results emphasize the need for careful data assimilation method selection in seismological modeling. • This study demonstrates ensemble data assimilation techniques’ potential in estimating the evolution of seismic variables in earthquake models with chaotic dynamics. • We provide a performance analysis of the Ensemble Kalman, Adaptive Gaussian Mixture, and Particle Flow Filter applied to both the Lorenz 1996 and Burridge–Knopoff seismic models. • The results illustrate underdispersion challenges in Ensemble Kalman and Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Filters. We propose an approach to estimate stochastic model errors to improve data assimilation in models with aperiodic seismic behavior. • The effectiveness of the Particle Flow Filter is assessed in maintaining variance for estimates in systems governed by rate-and-state friction.