A Study of North Korea's provocative factors: 2019-2023

This study began with the question of North Korea's continued military provocations in various forms since 2019, and specifically sought to identify the factors that explain its continued provocations in the face of significant systemic threats such as COVID-19. To this end, this study utilizes prospect theory to analyze the factors behind North Korea's military provocations from 2019 to 2023. As a result, this study confirms that North Korea's internal and external policies boil down to risk-taking and risk-aversion strategies based on its 'loss zone' and 'gain zone.' It also argues for the necessity of strategically shifting North Korea's base from the loss zone to the gain zone in order to manage the Korean Peninsula crisis.