Carbon Emissions from Food Consumption and Reduction Potential in Urban Residents: A Case Study of Provincial Capitals in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River

Existing studies have established reliable methods for estimating carbon emissions from food consumption, yet there remains a lack of quantitative analysis on the decarbonization effects of energy transition and resource recycling. This study integrates lifecycle analysis and scenario analysis, based on data from 2006 to 2020, to conduct an empirical investigation of four provincial capital cities (Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Jinan, and Taiyuan) in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River, exploring the potential for reducing carbon emissions from food consumption and examining the driving effects of energy transition and resource recycling. The results indicate the following: (1) Per capita carbon emissions from food consumption decreased after 2016. (2) Incineration for power generation has a significantly higher carbon reduction effect than landfilling. The proportion of carbon emissions from food waste disposal decreased from 20% to around 6%, with the decarbonization potential of recycling transformation being 8.8%, 8.3%, 11.5%, and 14.4% in Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Jinan, and Taiyuan, respectively. Our findings suggest that promoting the widespread adoption of new-energy vehicles, increasing the share of renewable energy in power generation, optimizing food recycling technologies, and reducing food waste are crucial for achieving future reductions in carbon emissions from urban food consumption. The proposed methodology for assessing carbon emissions and reduction potential in food consumption can also be applied to other regions with varying geographical, economic, and policy contexts.